Team

My Picks: 

(U)- Unofficial

Key Needs:

Team Moves:

1.

Miami

Jake Long- 

OT Michigan

6-7, 313

QB, OLT, NT/DT, ILB, TE, CB, WR, RB, OL, DE, CB, S

F.A. Signings:

Justin Smiley OG

Ernest Wilford WR

Josh McCown QB

Keith Davis ST/S

Charlie Anderson LB

Reggie Torbor LB

Michael Lehan CB

Key F.A.  Loses:

Zach Thomas ILB

L.J. Shelton OT

Trent Green QB 

Marty Booker WR

Keith Traylor DT

The Team: Signed, sealed, and delivered. Jake Long IS the number one pick in the Draft.

Word out of Miami is they are settling on Jake Long OT from Michigan, and like a predicted they have started negotiations with Long's agent. This makes sense when you look at their depth chart. Vernon Carey is there current starting Left Tackle, and he is similar to Long in that he might be better suited to RT. Justin Smiley looks pretty secure at Right Guard, and Samson Satele will be good Center for this team for a long time. The Rex Hadnot will battle the below average Chris Liwienski and old friend Gene Mruczkowski, which makes for a pretty good line. Oh wait, am I forgetting something, yes, a RT. They have no RT. Unless you consider Cory Lakkerkerker your starting RT. Now, the previous regime thought Lakkerkerker could develop into a pretty good player. If only Carey could play Right and Left Tackle. If you add Long this O-Line it could be pretty good right away. 

The Player: Long has terrific hands and feet. He already looks like an NFL LT in his techniques and sets. He blocks with arms extended and punches well with both hands. Then he drives in and grabs shirt with both hands, inside the shoulders (which is NFL legal) and continues shoving violently, and all the while keeping his feet moving, driving, and tapping along for power and balance. He sets his hands in the ready position exactly the way it is coached in the NFL. His footwork is textbook. He does everything the way coaches teach technique. He is clearly one of the most coachable players in this years draft. The more I watch him play the more I think he could be a Left Tackle. He has been compared recently to Jumbo Elliot. Elliot was a power LT who Parcells drafted in the Second Round out of Michigan. He struggled with speed sometimes (but let's be honest here, what LT doesn't struggle with speed sometimes?), but more then made up for it in the Running game. That could be a very apt description of Long, who I consider be the best Run Blocker in the Draft. Plus, he only gave up two Sacks starting for four years at Michigan, I think that amazing stat gets over looked too much. Long doesn't have the classic machinegun feet of a classic LT, but he uses his feet like a tightrope walker to stay in perfect balance. It just never appears that he is out of balance, except when he pulls outside sometimes, and the closer he gets to the left sideline the more uncomfortable he looks. He does have negatives. He doesn't always look smooth moving backwards. His kick-step is good, but not machinegun quick like Chris Williams. But he uses his long arms and great hands perfectly in pass protection to more then make for an imperfect kick-step. And you know, GMs and coach around the league are smiling when they see how mean and nasty he is on the field, and even I was smiling when I saw him interviewed, and he was smiling and laughing as he bragged about how much he enjoyed destroying defenders and driving them into the ground and jumping on top of them;-)  

Monster run blocker. Huge man who makes D-Ends look small and weak. I think Long can step in at Right Tackle where he is better suited. Long has great size, strength and toughness, but I question his feet. If you can't dance you can't play LT in the NFL;-) Looks fierce, graceful, and natural when moving forward into defenders. Can block multiple players on running downs. Is the strongest run blocker in the draft. Can collapse an entire D-Line by driving the D-End into the D-Tackle. Does not look natural moving backwards, his backpedal is not what one would call elegant. Loses all grace when pass blocking. Quicker then he looks, and is never off balance. Doesn't look natural when he pulls to the outside, and struggle the further outside he goes. When he moves off the line straight, he is a wonder to behold. He can punch the D-End and still rush straight forward and eliminate the middle Linebacker or Safety. He is so big and strong, and when he gets his giants mitts on a defender, they are defeated. Doesn't look natural moving backwards. However, he does get back faster then it looks, there appears to be a bit of a hop in his kick-slide, and he uses his long arms and gigantic strong hands well. Only gave up 1 Sack in his super impressive Senior season.

The Reason: Jake Lone makes sense, because he has the least chance to be a complete disaster. Some think, myself included, he can step in and be a Franchise LT for the next 12-15 years. If he can't, he can step in and be a Franchise RT for the next 12-15 years. If for some reason, and we've all seen college OT who can't play Tackle in the Pros, he can step inside and play O-Guard. That is two fall back positions, like Robert Gallery and Tony Mandarich (who did play O-Guard for Indy for a few years). When you are giving over 30 Million in guarantees, you know that player is going to be on your Roster for the next 5-6 years. You have to get something out of them. Jake Long looks like the player who is least likely to be a complete disaster.   

Second Choice: None

2.

Rams

Glenn Dorsey- 

DT LSU

6-2, 300

OL, DL, CB, WR, LB, S, CB, TE, OL

Key F.A. Signings:

Key F.A.  Loses:

Isaac Bruce WR

The Team: For Pats fans this is the first key to watch. If they don't take Chris Long, he just might fall down to the Pats at 7. The only other real stumbling block is K.C. If they trade Jared Allen they may have to take Long at 5.

The Rams have an interesting dilemma, which happens when you Draft well. Last season they drafted two DE/DT, and both played well. Clifton Ryan developed, unexpectedly, into a keeper at NT. Adam Carriker moved around a lot, and played well at DT, but they kept moving him out to D-End and then back inside when no else could play DT. So the question  is, did he have to play DT out of necessity or because that was the position they want him to play. I say it was out of need. I believe his best position in the NFL will be Left D-End. A position he will move into if they draft Dorsey. With Dorsey they would have 3 young D-Linemen to build the defense around, and two old passrushers to make he D-Line complete. If they take Chris Long, I don't see the D-Line fitting together as well. Long and Little look like Right D-Ends to me, and Carriker is going to take a beating inside. Carriker already has suffered a shoulder injury after one season at DT, and is going to miss all off season workouts. The Rams offense was held hostage last season when Pace got injured. Jake Long would be the perfect solution. He could plays Right Tackle for as long as Pace Plays and is healthy. So I still think they will be choosing between Dorsey and Jake Long

The Player: Dorsey can display almost inhuman strength sometimes. He can grab onto O-Lineman and shuffle his way sideward until the RB appears, and then throw the O-Linemen aside and crush the RB, like Reggie White. He can burst threw the line with 3-Tcchnique explosion, and just throw the OG to the ground.  He reminds me a little of Reggie White, in that he flashes White's Hulk-like strength every now and again, and can just toss an off balance O-Lineman aside like yesterdays trash. Dorsey is not an immovable object in the middle, but he is big, quick and plays under most other players. He get low and shots the gap as well as any D-Linemen ever has. When he stays low, he can drive an O-Lineman 3-5 yards backwards with amazing power and prejudice. He was double-teamed, grabbed, and held on almost every play, but can still made plays. I would like a little more slipperiness out of him. He gets stalemated a little too much, which is a little unfair to say because he gets so much attention from the O-Line. He can shed and really punished the Ball-carrier inside, as well as any D-Tackle who has ever played.

The Reason: The strangest thing lately has been the obsession with Dorsey. When talking about Other Teams, like Oakland and Atlanta, everybody is like, "Dorsey's the Best player in the Draft! If he is there they have to take him!" But when it come to the Rams everybody's like, "Well, I think, huh, Dorsey is good, but-huh, I think they'll take. huh. Chris Long." Well If Dorsey is the best player in the draft at picks 3,4,5, and 7, why isn't he the best player in the Draft at 2? So the Rams for some reason shouldn't take the top rated player or the top rated D-Linemen, they should take the 4th or 5th rated player and the Second rated D-Lineman. The Rams revealed in February that they had Dorsey and Jake Long as their 1-2 Players. I don't think that's changed. 

Carriker needs help. He and Little were the only NFL caliber D-Lineman on the Rams last season, and Little was injured. Dorsey is the top rated player in the draft. The Rams are sitting pretty, there two biggest needs are at D-Line and O-Tackle. 

Second Choice: Chris Long DE/OLB

3.

Falcons

Matt Ryan- 

QB BC 

6-5, 230

QB, OLT, DT, CB, OT, RB, WR, S, DE

F.A. Signings

Chris Redman QB

Michael Turner RB

Ben Hartsock TE

Erik Coleman S

Von Hutchins  CB

Key F.A.  Loses:

Rod Coleman DT

Demorrio Williams LB 

Alge Crumpler TE

Warren Dunn RB

Joey Harrington QB

Byron Lwftwich QB 

Wayne Gandy OT

The Team: Blank and Dimitroff where in town this weekend having lunch and interviewing Matt Ryan. The latest is that Blank wants Ryan, but will leave it up to Dimitroff. Dimitroff has Dorsey as the top rated player in the Draft. The Atlanta Falcons will select Matt Ryan. It's like I always say team get caught telling the truth in February, before they are in full espionage mode, and the week leading up to the draft when underlings want to show they know what is going on, and can't hold it in anymore. If you look at the timeline of events, Blank came up to Boston to spend the  afternoon with Ryan. He then revealed that he could be more impressed with Ryan. As a man of character, which is what this franchise needs more then anything else. Dimitroff even let it slip that he was impressed. Then, panic, they revealed the truth by accident, and ever since then the propaganda war began. Dorsey Dorsey Dorsey is all you hear out of Atlanta. Well, the question is, "Do you believe?"

Word out of Atlanta is that the top two rated players on their board is Dorsey and Matt Ryan. The QBs on their roster are currently Chris Redman and Joey Harrington, who are journeyman at best. The must take Ryan if he is available. Word out of Atlanta is that they want to use the Belichick system of building team. That is swell, only what is the Belichick system of building a team. Apparently, you build from the inside out with complete disregard for the most important position in professional sport. Hm, sounds stupid to me? Belichick is not stupid, and could never be accused of ignoring the QB position. Belichick is obsessed with the QB position and drafts a QB almost ever year. The Belichick system is find quality, build from the inside out, and first and foremost find an NFL caliber Franchise QB. He couldn't succeed in Cleveland until he got Vinny Testaverde, and he arrived in New England with Drew Bledsoe in place. Then he concentrated on building the offensive and defensive lines. Dimitroff said he was a QB "Snob". Well many consider Ryan and Jake Long to be the "cleanest" prospects, meaning they don't have any glaring holes or big negatives. The only question left is the 19 INTs. Which I consider to be a result of coaches who refused to run the ball, receivers who had trouble separating against good CBs, and Ryan's habit of locking onto a receiver and throwing him the ball to that WR no matter what. All three can and will change on the next level.

The Player: Matt Ryan has all the measurables that teams want at QB. He reminds me of Matt Hasselbeck, only he is far more advanced now then Matt was when he came out of BC. Would you take Matt Hasselbeck with this pick if he was a Rookie?  He is super tough and smart. As intelligence becomes more and more important each year, I think Ryan has a shot at number one. Loves to hang out after practice and do film work with coaches, an absolute must to succeed as a QB now-a-days. His coaches and teammates rave about him. Plus I have heard Draftnic raving about the Pro-Style Coaching that Brain Brohm has received? And while he has received Pro-Style coaching, Ryan was coached by Pro Coach, Jags was Offensive Coordinator in Green Bay for three seasons. So while Brohm played in a Pro-Style Offense, Ryan played in a Pro Offense last season. He is the most NFL ready QB in this Draft. Miami will live to regret passing on Ryan. 

The Reason: Who the hell knows? Apparently, they don't think they need a QB. The good news is that the signing of ex-Patriot Thomas Dimitroff will hopefully add some sanity to this team. He known as a level headed nice guy, who REALLY knows his stuff. He will take the Pats system to Atlanta, where it is desperately needed. I just wonder if he understands that the Pats system doesn't work without Brady. The Pats system is QB first, and then build from the inside out. Ryan is the anti-Vick, he is a team first player, not a me first player; he is not going to have explosive runs, but will come through in the clutch with the big pass; and he won't be on the cover of any video games, but he will just keep winning. Many Draftnics like to forge that he almost had B.C. in the BCS Championship Game! Are you kidding me? B.C. has no business of being considered in the Championship Game. All's he does is win, with lesser talent, and much slower players. He had no WRs who will be in the NFL. He had one RB who might, just might get drafted in the 7th Round. He had Cherilus who will be Drafted in the First Round, and that was it. He had Jolonn Dunbar, DeJuan Tribble, and Jamie Silva; Now I am not meaning to degrade these players, because they were great, and I mean great players at B.C., and were the heart and soul of their defense, but none of the three will be First Day Picks. This is the team he almost brought to the Championship Game. 

Second Choice: Chris Long DE/OLB

4.

Raiders

Vernon Gholston-

OLB/DE 

Ohio ST

6-3, 267, 4.58, 

37 Reps, 42" Vert.

OLT, DT, DE, RB, LB, DL, DB, OL, DL

F.A. Signings:

Javon Walker WR

Drew Carter WR.

Kwame Harris OT

Gibril Wilson S

Tyler Brayton DE

William Joseph DT

Key F.A.  Loses:

Jerry Porter WR

Barry Sims OT

Josh McCown QB

Chris Clemons DE

The Team: Word out of Oakland is that they are enamored with Gholston. He has become their number one choose. If Gholston, Chris Long, and Adrian McFadden are still on the board, the Raiders will take Gholston. 

Sed Ellis might the best fit for needs. With Terrell Sands and Gerald Warren as your starting DTs, you might as erect "Run Here" sign down the middle of your Defense. McFadden fits Davis's Draft philosophy best, speed, speed, speed, and RB is the hardest team need to figure. Justin Fargas's running style puts him in constant jeopardy (and he realty can't survive a full season until, he learns to protect himself a little), but he did run for over a thousands yards for the first time in his career, after missing the last 2 games of the season with a knee injury, and not getting a start until the second half of the season (that's what 6 starts and out for the season). Michael Bush should be ready after spending his entire rookie season on IR recovering from a broken leg, but he is a rookie with a history of breaking his leg and we have no idea how he will translate to the NFL yet. Dominic Rhodes is back, but how much does he have left. Lamont Jordan is a good veteran, but his tank looks empty. Vernon Gholston would be the outside speed rusher we know Rob Ryan loves, and that would allow Tommy Kelly to move back inside, which may not be a good thing as he played better when they moved him outside to DE last season. Okay, now I'm more confused then when I started;-)

The Raiders are always a hard team to figure. They usually go with the best athlete available, or rather Fastest Athlete Available.  When you invest nearly 30 Million in guaranteed money in a young QB, you really need to spend a few drafts getting him help so he can be in the best position to succeed. This teams future rests on JaMarcus Russell's rather strong arm.  

The Player: Gholston first and foremost, he is a Super-freak. He is a super freaky physical specimen. Solid muscle with great Combine week. Where football players drop and athletic freaks rise. But he is not just a Combine freak, he has the production, attitude, and experience coaches crave as well. His problem is that his best position in the NFL, right now, is Left D-End, in fact he looks to me like a bigger faster Robert Mathis. But, like Mathis, the question is can he hold the point as a Left D-End in the NFL, and like Mathis, the answer appears to be no. He excels at moving forward. Had 13 sacks to tie Vrabel's single season record, and had a Sack in his Bowl game giving him a total of 14 Sacks for the season, he also had, 37 Tackles and 15.5 TFL. Played the "Leo" position last season, similar to what McGinest used to do. He played Right Outside Linebacker in 3-4 and R-End in 4-3, and dropped back in coverage as Ohio States "Drop-End". But, he does not look natural moving backwards. Has experience moving backwards in coverage, as he was recruited as a Linebacker from High School and played the "Leo" position where he was asked to stand up and put and put his hand on the ground, but he loses his natural grace and aggressiveness whenever he is dropping back. He is not Carl Banks, though he does have some LT in him, in that, when he is moving forward towards the QB he plays with great speed, aggressiveness, and grace. When he shifted to LB, he played on both sides, but still looked more comfortable on the Left side. Has experience covering the RB out of the backfield. Doesn't look natural setting the edge, as he always wants to be attacking the QB. He keeps peeking and moving up field rather then holding the edge and preventing the RB from getting to the outside. He could really learn a lot about Run-Responsibilities from Vrabel, who sets the edge as well as any LB in the NFL. Left D-End looks like is natural position, which is important to figure out when you are talking about a Hybrid player. Blast off the line like the Space Shuttle, and soar around the Right Tackle. Plus, he has a quick inside move when the RT backs up too much. A player you want moving forward. Looks like the best athlete on the field when he is moving forward, but his natural grace and speed dissipates the more he back pedals.  Has all the physical tools to play Outside Linebacker in a 3-4, but he will take more time to adjust to that position, as he does not look as comfortable when he is standing up, and appears to be thinking too much and not reacting. 

Second team All-American

Big-10 D-Linemen of the year.

Gholston is tight wired physical specimen. He will be flying up the charts as coaches and GMs see him up close. Great explosion and speed. If he runs in a sub-4.5 like some people are saying, he will be a Patriot. Already a polished passrusher. Not a great Run-Defender, but his initial burst is a wonder to behold. He blasts off the line like a rocket. Gholston will be a top seven talent come Combine time, and looks like he could be a Dwight Freeney in the making. He looks like a passrushing force waiting to attack.    

The Reason: Davis is known to take the fastest athlete available speed is what defines McFadden on the field. However, how would you like to replace Warren Sapp with Sed Ellis? Vernon Gholston tested as maybe the best athlete in the draft. Chris Long looks like a start in the making. This is one of the toughest calls to make in the Draft.  .

Second Choice: Chris Long OLB/DE

5.

Chiefs

*Ryan Clady- 

OT Boise ST

6-5, 320

OT, DB, WR, DE, OL, OL, QB, RB, DT, OC, QB, DB

Key F.A. Signings:

Demorrio Williams LB

Oliver Hoyte FB 

Key F.A.  Loses:

Ty Law CB

John Welbourn OL

Eddie Kennison WR 

The Team: This is the second stumbling block for the Pats. The Chiefs one and only team strength is at D-End, so what do they do, they go and trade their most productive D-End. Now, suddenly, taking a D-End here makes sense. Here's the rub, they need two new starting O-Tackles. Say what you will, I believe they are locked onto Ryan Clady here. 

Word out of KC is that they are going to trade Jared Allen for Minnesota's Number One pick at 17, and that they are going to take Derrick Harvey here. At first I was shocked, 15.5 Sacks in 14 games last season? But he is a drunk, and apparently a real jerk. So this is a decision based on character and not production. The problem is that I have Harvey going 17 to the Vikings, so how can I have the Chiefs taking Harvey here. It will be a big mistake to take Harvey here. If you have the 17th pick and an extra Third, reported thrown in to the deal as well, you can trade up a few spots to get Harvey. Teams are desperate to trade down in this Draft, and I just don't see Harvey going in the top 14. Baltimore might if they see him as an OLB, I don't. Cincy at 9 might, but Sed Ellis looks like their man at 9, and they will probably trade up to get him. New Orleans? Not a chance. The Bills at 11? No. Denver? Carolina? Chicago? Detroit? I just don't see D-End as a big need for these teams. And if the O-Linemen are gone by Carolina or Chicago, then I think they will all be looking to trade down. 

The Player: He has risen into the top Eight, given this draft an Elite Eight. His has the best combination of feet, long arms, and quickness in this years Draft. He is seen as the only legit Left Tackle Prospect in the Draft. He has left scouts drooling since he displayed his amazing athleticism for a man the size of a bear, and it looks like he may have danced is way into the top five. The Panthers and Broncos are already trying to trade up to get him, however, I no longer think the Chiefs can pass on him at five. He was so dominate at Boise State, that some teams stopped lining up Passrusher in front of him during obvious passing downs, I don't think there is a bigger complement you can pay to a Left Tackle. 

Clady physically is as good as it gets, but he hasn't put it all together. He needs some add strength, coaching, and technique work, and he could be as good as any linemen in this years draft. Has long arms and quick feet, just needs to consistently put the two together. Physically he is huge and towered over D-Ends in his conference. He has excellent feet, and there is little doubt he can play LT in NFL.

The Reason: Brandon Albert is soaring up the charts like Elvis on crack, but does that mean the Chiefs are interested? I have to say no. Again, word out of K.C. is that Will Shields is working with Clady. Now maybe it is innocent, but you have to believe that minimally Shields is giving the inside word to the Chiefs. And maximally, Clady is already working in K.C.'s offense.  

This is going to be a tough pick to figure, Brandon Albert has overtaken Clady as the Second O-Tackle on a lot of Draft boards. I think Clady will be able to step in at Left Tackle next season, but I'm not certain Albert can. However, he has a O-Guard as a fall back position, and in a year or two he could be an excellent Left Tackle. 

Second Choice: Matt Ryan QB 

6.

Jets

Darren McFadden- RB/QB 

Arkansas

6-2, 210, 4.27(U)

CB, RB, QB, WR,  LB, DB

Key F.A. Signings:

Alan Faneca OG

Damien Woody ORT

Jesse Chatman RB

Bubba Franks TE

Calvin Pace OLB

Chris Jenkins DT

Artrell Hawkins S 

Key F.A.  Loses:

CB Andre Woolfolk

Justin McCareins WR

Jonathan Vilma LB

Dewayne Robertson DT

Andre Dyson CD

Erik Coleman S

Adrien Clarke OG

The Team: Word out of NY is that are zeroed in on McFadden. They have been wining and dining him for the past week in NY, and he is now the Number One player on their Draft Board. And it looks like the Raiders have backed off McFadden, and he is all but guaranteed to be the Jets pick. 

To mean the player that helps this team the most next season is McFadden. Running behind this new O-Line he could be a terror. His blend of size and speed is really wonderful. While he is not Adrian Peterson, he is faster more elusive and will take less career threatening hits then Peterson. And if he get the Corner he is gone. This running game needs help, and if the Raiders pass on McFadden help is coming fast, about 4.27 fast.

Thomas Jones averaged only 3.6 YPC, and I don't see him as a starting back anymore. You can blame the O-Line for stinking after Tannenbaum ridiculously traded Pete Kendall for nothing and a bag a beans, but by years end Leon Washington was averaging 5.0 YPC behind the same line. However, he too is not a fulltime starter. The Jets have been talking about trading up for McFadden, which I think makes sense, because otherwise they are in the same position as the Pats, reaching for their top need at CB, Hank Poteat is their starting Right Corner, or over-drafting a position. Calvin Pace and Vernon Gholston play the same position. Now you can argue which plays it better, I would take Gholston over Pace in a heartbeat, but with the money given to Pace, can the Jets offer up another 20 Million in guaranteed money to the Outside Passrushing Gods. They still have the erratic Bryan Thomas and David Bowens to man to other side opposite Pace, they have been inconsistent but have played well for them upon occasion. I like McFadden or Mendenhall here, but I don't think McFadden will fall or they have the guts to take Mendenhall here. And I'm not saying they should take Mendenhall because I hate the jets, I think he is the player that can help this team the most next season. I think he compares very favorable to LaDainian Tomlinson. He has the same size, speed, strength, and receiving abilities as Tomlinson when he came out of college. Plus, he has Tomlinson's great open-field make-you-miss quickness that really separates him from the other backs coming out. And when he showed up at the Combine at 225 pounds, and ran a 3.37, I think he propelled himself into the top ten and maybe even the Elite Eight.      

The Player: If McFadden reminds me of anyone he reminds me of a faster Marcus Allen. Now, what separated Allen from other backs of his skill level was his amazing toughness. I'm not saying McFadden has his toughness, so very few NFL players do, but when I watch him run he just looks like Allen. Allen was a long lean upright runner, who had this amazing ability to suddenly duck under the pads of an incoming defenders at the last second, and hit him rather then the other way around. It was great to watch, he would be striding along, and bam quicker then you can see he had lowered his shoulder pads right into the defenders gut. McFadden has that same knack for striding along and then bam almost diving into the defender. The comparisons to Reggie Bush are ludicrous. Bush's problem is that he now tries to bounce it outside on every single block. I can't tell you how many times I saw a blocker on his team with inside shade, and the defender holding the edge, and if he just cut inside the blocker he was gone. Instead, he fakes inside and runs right into the defender holding the outside, every single time, and defensive players now know it. If he would just learn to read his blocks he would be a great weapon again. McFadden doesn't bounce it outside on every single block. He will lower his pads and hit the hole where he is suppose to, at least enough to keep the defense honest. Now at Arkansas they ran outside a lot. Duh, with McFadden and Jones in the backfield you want to use that speed to the outside, not pound them into the big fats guys who can't catch them. McFadden reads blocks well, and will lower his pads and hit the hole between the Tackles when he is called to, unlike Bush, who is bouncing himself right outside the league if he continues to not follow his blockers.    

McFadden is a super- fast slick RB. His instincts and intelligence are amazing. I think he is the second best player in this draft. But, I also think the comparisons to Adrian Peterson are weak. McFadden looks and runs nothing like Peterson. Peterson is stronger, shiftier, and quicker, while McFadden has more straight-line speed. Plus, McFadden has no injury concerns. He runs upright in the open field, but does a good jump getting his pads low when he needs to, and is almost miraculously quick at getting his pads low when someone is about to crush him. Incident at night club has hurt his reputation. Was forced to take a Paternity test by an unscrupulous moneygrubber. Neither of these incidents worry me. Also, has fumbled more then makes me comfortable,  23 times in 3 seasons. Two time Doak Walker award winner. Very impressive young man in person. Has the smarts to play QB as well as RB. Articulate and intelligent in interviews. Dealt with the media very well at Combine. Second all time rusher in SEC history with 4,590 yards. Had a very impressive 2,310 all purpose yards and 16 TDs last season at Arkansas. Ran an amazing 4.27 at 211 pounds at the Combine.

The Reason: The best player in the Draft at two need position, one RB, and two the Jets are desperate for any kind of Offensive explosion. 

Second Choice: Rashard Mendenhall RB

7.

Patriots

Chris Long- 

DE/OLB

Virginia

6-3, 275, 4.71(U)

CB, ILB, TE, S, OLB, OL, LB?, CB?

Key F.A. Signings:

T.J. Slaughter LB 

Jason Webster CB

Fernando Bryant CB

Lewis Sanders CB

WR Sam Aiken

Key F.A.  Loses:

Asante Samuel CB

Donte' Stallworth WR

Eugene Wilson S/CB

Roosevelt Colvin LB 

Randall Gay CB

The Team: Believe it or not, but right now it looks like Long be sitting here when the Pats pick. If the Chiefs trade Jared Allen to the Vikings for pick number 17, they most likely will take Long. The Rams have to take Dorsey, because it is not only a matter of passrush, they couldn't stop anyone running up the middle on them last season. With Dorsey in the middle, he helps plug up the running lanes and helps with the passrush, and allows Adam Carriker to move outside to his natural position Left Defensive End. That give them a three DT rotation of Dorsey, Glover, and Ryan, and a three D-End rotation of Carriker, Little, and Hall, that is not bad. If you add Long into mix instead, the blend isn't as sweet, and they will struggle to stop runs up the middle for the foreseeable future. The Raiders have all but come and put up billboards all over Oakland proclaiming they are taking Vernon Gholston. The jets have actually put up billboards proclaiming they are taking McFadden;-) This leaves Howe's little boy on the Board when the Pats pick. Come on! Tell me I'm wrong! I dare you;-) The lastest word coming out of New England is that the Pats are going to take Sed Ellis, and use him to replace Richard Seymour. I just wonder how anybody can believe this. If you take Ellis here, then you cannot sign Wilfork next year. You can't pay two NT 18-20 million in guaranteed money. Okay so you can move Ellis to Right D-End to supplant Seymour. I don't buy it. I think Ellis can play in a 3-4, but at 6 foot one-half inch I believe he is completely, utterly, and absolutely limited to NT. I just can see him play outside against those big, tall, long armed Left Tackles. Vince Wilfork is THE best NT in the NFL. If everything goes perfectly for Ellis, he could develop into a player of Wilfork's caliber. Nothing ever goes prefect. And do you really risk a player of Wilfork's caliber on a player who may or may not reach that potential? It just doesn't make sense to me. What does make sense is leaking out that nonsense to media monkeys who will believe anything, to try and create a bidding war between Cincy and New Orleans. I think if either team offers up their second, the Pats would trade down in a heart beat.    

Lets talk value, I am a proponent of drafting for value, but not in the way it is currently being used. I consider value to be a blend of best player available and need. Draftnics who believe in best player available period are wrong, and often stupid. I am as big a Needs guy as their is, and I would not say that Needs only is the only criteria for drafting a player. It is a blend of both. Lets look here for an example. The highest rated player on the board, even if Gholston falls to them, the highest rated player likely to be on the board when they pick is Sed Ellis and/or Matt Ryan. So what is Belichick to do take the best player available, say Ellis, and pay him 18 million dollars to back up Vince Wilfork. There is no value in that, it is ludicrous. They need a young starter at Corner and Inside Linebacker. With Rivers currently rated 10 and McKelvin currently rated 9, they are not the best players available, but they are the best value available. Either one of those two player would easily start for this team next season. Do they have flaws, yes, Rivers is a little light for a 3-4 Inside Linebacker, and McKelvin has bad hands, but if you are going to pay a player 18 million in guarantees he damn well better have the talent to start. Both Rivers and McKelvin have the talent to start for this team next season, Ellis and Ryan do not. Now I'm not saying that Ellis or Ryan suck, I have them both rated above Rivers and McKelvin that is the point! They are not better players then Wilfork or Brady, and probably never will be. They hold no value for this team. In fact it is worst, they hold a negative value for this team because of 18 million in guarantees sitting on the bench. To take the best player available would be stupid. That is why everybody has the Pats taking McKelvin because he holds value for this team. the Pats do not have a CB that has the potential to be a Number One CB on their current roster. Whether you like it or not, McKelvin and DRC have more talent and are more likely to develop into Number One Corners then anybody on this current roster. Now, I believe that Mike Jenkins and Antoine Cason both hold more value then Ellis or Ryan here, but is would be stupid to take either of those players here, as at least one of those two players will be available in the twenties. It is a blend, a mix of talent and team needs that makes a great draft. Is there any Pats fan who would not go nuts if Vernon Gholston is on the Board when we pick? NO!, okay maybe one or nay-Sayers who want to be negative about everything. But, in this scenario, a scenario that 99% of Pats fans would go nuts for, Gholston is not the Best Player Available, Sed Ellis is. So should the Pats take Ellis? Or should they do cartwheels down the aisle right up to the front table and hand over the card that says Vernon Gholston, Ohio State. You bet your ass it would be Gholston. Also, most Draftnics have Dorsey or McFadden as their top player in the Draft, I have them tied for top honors, but almost no one has Miami taking either player, why? Most have them taking Ryan, my 6th rated player, Jake Long my 4th rated player, or Chris Long my 3rd rated player. Okay, I have to go eat dinner, when my blood sugar gets a little low I get grumpy.

If you look at some of the players Belichick has been having Double-Secret-Probation interviews with, you can reason Belichick is relatively certain he is going to trade down. He has visited Antoine Cason and Quentin Groves (picks 22 and 28?), and he recently snuck down to Tampa to interview Mike Jenkins (who I have going 18) and his partner in crime Trae Williams (the other South Florida Corner slated to go somewhere in Rounds 3-6). I would say right now there is a 90% chance of trading down, which is amazing considering the 18 million guaranteed with the Seventh slot. If you asked me a month ago if they could get a trade done I would have said unlikely. Here are some viable trade scenarios. 1. Sed Ellis falls- How much would Cincinnati pay to secure the rights to Ellis. Of course you ask for picks 9 and 41, That is an awful lot to pay to move up 2 spots. You would probably have to settle for their Third Rounder, pick 77, or next years Second Round pick. Other teams that might be interested in Ellis who you could get a Second are New Orleans (10 and 32), and Detroit (15- Mike Jenkins and 40- Dan Connors?). 2. Ryan Clady (if the Pats don't want him?) falls- Denver is Desperate for a Left Tackle. I cannot see them saying no to 12 and 44. Carolina is looking for a Left Tackle, and might give up 13 and 45 to hop over Denver, but that would cost them a QB so maybe not? Chicago, Detroit, Arizona, Minnesota, Houston, and Philly, are all opening shopping for a Left Tackle. 3. Matt Ryan- Carolina has no options at QB, David Carr is gone and Jake Delhomme had Tommy John surgery. They are looking at Matt Moore as their opening day starter. Chicago has Rex Gross as their starting QB, 'nuff Said. And my favorite, 4. Darren McFadden- Cowboys for picks Number 22 and 28. If you listen to what Jerry Jones actually said, he said a top FIVE pick is so cost prohibitive that it is a Negative on the health of a Franchise. Then he said he absolutely would not trade into the top SIX to get McFadden. And who is sitting there innocently at 7, with all kinds of connections with Jones? I can all but guarantee if McFadden falls the Pats and Cowboys have a trade in place. The Pats are in the top position to trade down in the Draft. Getting an early-to-mid Second Round pick would be a boon for this team. NE Patriots Draft has them taking Godfrey in the Second Round, that would be a nice pick, but I'm not sure he's going to be there at 62. I'm more partial to Porter or Molden, but the connection to Iowa is real and obvious. A pick in the 40s or 50s would give the Pats a shot at Calais Cambell, Dre Moore, and or Curtis Lofton. A pick in the late 30s could give them a shot at Dan Connor, who could slide into the Second Round. For more info on Pats needs visit my March Mock Draft, which has two month of ranting about Patriots needs at pick 7. 

The Player: Long had an absolutely great Combine, and looks like he has solidify himself as maybe the top player in the draft. Demonstrating his great combination of size, strength, and speed.    

Long is a terrific football player who can play D-End in a 3-4. Long looks like a great hybrid player in a 3-4, and he can play in the 4-3. Had amazing Senior season. Acquiring 14 sacks, 75 Total Tackles, and 19 TFL as a 5-Technigue D-End playing in a 3-4 is unheard of! Relentless, and I mean Relentless passrusher. In his Bowl Game against Texas Tech, Tech throw the ball 69 times! Long rushed relentlessly on nearly ever single pass, he dropped back into a coverage a few times and was on the bench for a few plays in the First Half. Amazingly, he got the most pressure in the Forth Quarter where he got his hands on Harrell at least twice and almost sacked him twice, but he lost he balance and was falling down and wasn't able to hold on. That is the definition of relentless.   

His coach Al Groh said (and I'm paraphrasing because I did not write the quote down), (He is) "afraid Long might wear down as a D-End in the NFL, and that his most natural position would be as a Mike Vrabel-type OLB." Oh yeah he also said, and I quote, "Clearly, there's no better player in college football than Chris Long. He performs like a star but doesn't act like a star." Sounds like a Patriot to me. First-Team All-America by the American Football Coaches Association. First-Team All-Atlantic Coast Conference. 

The Reason: A couple of weeks ago I put up a mock, with the same top seven picks. As all the stars aligned, and  all earthly signs pointed to Gholston reaching the Pats, and the Gods of the Outside Linebackers looked down and smiled on us. Last week all the TV and radio monkeys joined my choir, and started chanting "Gholston to the patriots, oh my!". This week, suddenly, out-of-thin-air, the giant double-reinforced-steel battle-door squeaked open, and the great green ogre, Bill Beli-Shriek, stuck his giant green head out of the evil Dungeon door (formally known as the Bunker), ever so slightly and whispered, "We have no interest in Vernon. We want to trade out of seven." Then he quickly ducked his giant green head back into the great evil dungeon, before anyone could video tape him. And the TV and Radio Monkeys started chanting, "Vernon Gholston not that good. The Pats will pass, just like they should." Well, aah-gain, be careful what you believe in March and the beginning of April, when teams are in full espionage mode. The latest chant has me more convinced then ever that Gholston is their man, or do you really believe that the great green ogre Beli-Shriek will tell the truth about his intentions on Draft Day?   

I honestly believe that if Jake Long goes Number One to Miami (now the likely scenario), and Dorsey goes Number Two to the Rams, (most have them taking Chris Long, but I think I explained why I think they would take Dorsey instead) that Gholston most likely falls to them. Atlanta could screw up the works by taking Chris Long, but I think they have to Ryan if he falls to them. The Raiders will be choosing between Chris Long and McFadden, and if they take McFadden, then we take either Chris or Gholston, whichever falls, as the one strength K.C has is their D-Ends. I think Gholston can be the passrushing foundation for any team that takes him. In a 3-4 defense where his versatility and freakish physical gifts can be exploited to there fullest... he would be just scary! The first choice is to trade out and still pick up Rivers, McKelvin, DRC, or Mike Jenkins. Otherwise the will be choosing between Rivers, McKelvin, DRC, and Ryan Clady. McKelvin has the talent to be a Number One Corner. Rivers has the talent to step in at Inside Linebacker and not leave for 10-15 years. In the new NFL you have to have finesse Corners who can cover without contact. That is amazingly hard to do. McKelvin has that ability. He has a great knack for staying in position to make a play on the ball with minimal contact. This is just what the Pats need. I would be happy if the Pats end up with Gholston, McKelvin, DRC, Rivers, or Clady in the First Round, and maybe just maybe an extra 2nd to pick up a Tight End. However, the 3-4 has an unquenchable thirst for Linebackers. Rivers might the best in this years Draft. He can play any LB position in the 3-4, and would look very nice Inside in this defense. 

For more Info on Pats, check out my: Patriots Draft Blog.

Second Choice: Trade Down

8.

Ravens

Brandon Albert-  

OG/OT Virginia

6-5, 305

QB, WR, RB, ILB, OT, CB, DT, DE, WR, DB

Key F.A. Signings:

Key F.A.  Loses:

Mike Flynn OC 

Mike Anderson RB

Musa Smith RB

The Team: The Ravens really need a QB. If Ryan falls here they will be doing Cartwheels in the War Room. They really want to find a Corner to go with their two veterans. Samari Rolle is getting old fast, and McAlister went down with injuries, their defense fell apart. They have no Third Corner worth mentioning. Corey Ivy might be an adequate Forth Corner, but as a starter or Nickel Back he is easily exploited. Still, they also MUST address the O-Tackle situation this off season. If Clady falls and Ryan doesn't I think they take him. 

The Player: Okay I think I'm finally coming around on this guy. The more I watch him the more I like him. Was recruited as a LT, but with D'Brickashaw Furguson many that spot, he slide over to Left Guard, and made that position his own. He was suppose to move back, but they had another young stud LT Eugene Monroe, so they felt it would be less disruptive to keep Albert at LG. He has very long arms that he uses very well to punch, pop, and keep D-Linemen off balance. Pulled a lot in his role at Virginia, and even pulled on Pass Downs sometimes. Plays better on the run, and can be devastating when pulling and hitting defenders on the move. Looks like a LT plays like a LG. Started all 37 games since he step on the campus as a Freshmen. Was named All-ACC all three years at Virginia. Has the natural feet, athleticism, and Quickness to play Left Tackle.   

Reminds me of Ruben Brown the old Buffalo O-Guard who played last season in Chicago. Has a large rounded body like him, and very long arms. Looks like an O-Tackle, and most people think he can play O-Tackle, but he is an O-Guard, and it looks like he should be a great one, like Brown.  

The Reason: I'm not sold on Albert being the second best O-Tackle in the Draft. He started two games at LT last season and played okay. When you are projecting O-Linemen to change positions, normally they move inside where the degree of difficulty is less. When you project an O-Guard to move outside to Left Tackle, you better be real careful. That is a very complicated and difficult move for a player to make. I think Albert is NFL ready to play Left Guard, but Left Tackle? I would be very nervous. However, a team that have grave concerns about an aging Left Tackle, now that I can understand. Albert can start at Left Guard or Right Tackle for this team next season, and be groomed a little slower then most teams to play Left Tackle. This situation is the best thing that could happen to Albert.  

Ryan would be a huge pick up for this team. There should be a solid O-Tackle in the early Second to help with the constant threat of Ogden retiring. 

Second Choice: DRC OT

9. 

Bengals

Sedric Ellis- 

DT USC 

6-2, 310, 5.2

LB, RB, DE, DT, OT,  LB, TE,  DE, DB, OL, TE

Key F.A. Signings: 

Darryl Blackstock LB

Key F.A.  Loses:

Justin Smith DE 

Landon Johnson LB

Madieu Williams S

The Team: I thought there top need last season was LB and Corner, but there Corners have played better than I expected. I have criticized their Secondary for years, and then they pick up 3 starting DBs in last years Draft. CB Leon Hall, S Marvin White, and CB Chinedum  Ndukwe all were starting by the end of the season and playing well. The loss of Madieu Williams is huge, but I think their Secondary could actually be above average next season! How long has it been since you could say that? I'm not a huge fan of their LBs, but they had four guys on IR last season, and all four could be gone next season. Ahmad Brooks and Lemar Marshal are two of the injured players who they want back, but both are FA. They really need a DE, as they have Robert Geathers on one side and no one on the other. Their DTs are good, Peko has developed into an invaluable player on their D-Line, and Thornton is a team player who gives it his all, but is limited and small for a DT. If Sed Ellis falls to them they will be doing jumping-jacks in the Warroom.     

That being said, they still needs to go defense early and often.

The Player: Ellis has the abilities to develop into a superior 3-technique DT. However, he played a lot of read-and-react at USC, and I think he can play in any scheme. He has exceptionally long arms that he uses exceptionally well to keep blockers of his body. The more I watch him play the more I like his game, and the more I think he can play in any scheme. Played on the Nose a lot in USC hybrid scheme, and absorbed a lot of double teams. He would often line up directly on the Center and two-gap. And, when he was unleashed he shot through the gap like a buckshot through balsawood.  

The Reason: The reason is simple, I just think Ellis really fits into this Defense well. They need a smaller 3-Technique player to harass the QB. Having those two beasts in the middle of the line would really help this Defense. They have the worst Linebackers in the League. For whatever reason the entire back Seven of this team has been dismantled. So a LB/DE would be a natural pick here.

Second Choice: Rashard Mendenhall RB

10.

Saints

Keith Rivers- 

LB USC

6-3, 235, 4.51, 42", 10"7', 4.38 S.S.

DT, OC, CB, WR, LB, DB, DL, OL

F.A. Signings:

Jonathan Vilma LB 

Randall Gay CB

Aaron Stecker RB

Bobby McCray DE

Key F.A.  Loses:

Jeff Faine OC 

Brian Simmons LB

Spencer Johnson DT

The Team: The Saints top need appears to be at LB and Corner, which makes this pick tough. Vilma was a nice addition, but you have to question if his knee is sound and if his injury trend will continue. Gay is a very good Corner. He is an above average CB who cannot stay healthy. As all Pats fans know, there is no doubt his injury trend will continue. What did he sign a four year deal? I think. If it's four years he will play less then half the games in 3 of the 4 years. The biggest problem this team faces is its' pass defense. However, is last year is a barometer, they will not draft a LB or CB. Like last year when they ignored their Key Needs they addressed in Free agency, CB and LB, when they sign Jason David and Brain Simmons (Who they traded for I think). 

The Player: Keith Rivers is a tough player to grade. He disappears in games more then I can say I'm honestly comfortable with, but he played on such a talented defense, maybe the most talented defense ever. Sed Ellis, Lawrence Jackson, Terrell Thomas, all three will be taken in the top three rounds of this years draft. Plus, he shared Linebacking duties with Rey Maualuga (if he had come out, I would have bet 15 gallons of ice cream that the Pats would have taken him) and Brian Cushing (who some think is better then Rivers, I don't). Two Linebacker who could be top ten picks in next years Draft. So there were times when all of these players disappeared because of the talented players making plays around them. Athletically Rivers has everything. Good size, 4.5 speed, great feet, and can twist his hips and run with any Tight End or Running Back. Plus, he is an excellent hitter. He is very smart and has good football instincts. He can find the ball in traffic and trash and still make the big hit. He can change direction on a dime. And really plays to his speed on the field. He runs from sideline-to-sideline like a guy with 4.5 speed. He has started his third straight season at WLB, so moving inside will be an adjustment. Though he didn't start a game as a freshman, where he had 25 Tackles, no Sacks, 3 TFL, 1 INT, and 2 PBU, he didn't missed a start since. His Sophomore season, where he became a starter and never left, he had 52 Tackles, 1 Sacks, 3 TFL, 1 INT, and 1 PBU. His Junior season, he had 85 Tackles, 2 Sacks, 7.5 TFL, 2 PBU, 3 FR and 1 FF. Last season, despite playing on maybe the most talented defense ever, he was an All-American, and he had 78 Tackles, no Sacks, 5 TFL, and 4 PBU. At his Pro Day he looked like he was sculpted out of steroids. You may not think he should be a top ten pick, but he sure looked like it physically. He is an extremely hard worker, with all the intangibles we hope are important. Loves the game of football, and it is very important to him. I think this quote is from NFL.com, "He was 1 of 10 semifinalists for the 2007 Butkus Award and 1 of 17 quarterfinalists for the Lott Trophy, as well as an SI.com All-American first team, Pro Football Weekly All-American first team, Walter Camp All-American second team, Phil Steele's All-American third team and Collegefootballnews.com All-American honorable mention pick."  He is tough and physical in the Number 55 tradition at USC, which is a sacred number given only to it's top Linebacker recruit. He has experience at all three Linebacker positions 'SC played, and as a Freshman and Sophomore played with his hand down in obvious passing downs. He has shown a knack in pass coverage, and is his super smooth athleticism really shines in coverage. Has tremendous on field versatility. Reminds me of Carl Banks, excellent in run defense, a great hitter, and he is an excellent passrusher, but sis ability to cover is so valuable that he is asked to blitz much less then he should.  

The Reason: The Saints need the most help on their Pass Defense. So how do you help your Pass Defense without drafting a DB, LB, or D-Line. Now, they certainly are not going to draft a D-End, as that position is one of their team strengths. However, their interior D-Line are big, slow, and bulky, and offer little or no passrush. I'm not sure Balmer fits Gary Gibbs defense perfectly. In the end, passing a Corner with the talent of McKelvin, or a Linebacker with the talent of Rivers at 10 would just be foolish. 

Second Choice: DRC CB

11.

Bills

Leodis McKelvin- CB/PR Troy  

5-10.5, 190

CB, WR, TE, LB, CB, WR, DT, RB, CB

F.A. Signings:

Marcus Stroud DT

Kawika Mitchell LB

Spencer Johnson DT

Key F.A.  Loses:

Peerless Price WR 

Michael Gaines TE

Kiwaukee Thomas CB

The Team: They need a Corner, or a passrusher to help the secondary. Terrence McGee, who made the team as a Return guy, has developed into a legit starting Corner, and maybe even a Number One Corner. He had 23 PBU and 4 INTs last season. Greer and Webster are two guys who are developing, but I don't think their ready yet. Buffalo has a long history of focusing in on a Corner and taking him in the First Round. Still, taking a LB here, might help this defense more then a Corner.